and Climate
Ensemble Weather Forecasts: stochastic forecasts

Ensemble predictions are based on GFS Ensemble high resolution Forecasts. Some detailed description of the model configuration can be found at:

The current NCEP Global Ensemble configuration consists of 4 runs at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z 18Z each day (available through anonymous ftp from public servers

  • T382L64 high resolution control out to 7 days, after which this run gets truncated and is run out to 16 days at a T126L64 resolution
  • T126L28 control that is started with a truncated T382L64 analysis, run out to 16 days. gec00.t00z.pgrb(a/b)f24
  • 20 perturbed forecasts each run out to 16 days at T126L28 horizontal and vertical resolution.
The perturbations are from Ensemble Transform (ET) with rescaling
(See:   Wei et al. 2007: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique
in the NCEP global operational forecast system, Tellus).

Ensemble dataset for all applications:  Forecast - GFS Ensemble High Resolution

  • Subregion: 0° - 14°E, 14° - 5°N
  • Latitude Resolution: 1°
  • Longitude Resolution: 1°
  • Model run: gep01.t00z, gep02.t00z, gep03.t00z, gep04.t00z, gep05.t00z, gep06.t00z
  • Temporal output: from 12 to 48 hours UTC
  • Output Frequency: every 6 hours
  • Levels: all available
  • Variables: all available
The data are downloaded from the server:

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