LUC :  Reference Manual
    Release Level 1.0
    Release Date 2008 11
    Revision Level 1.0

LUC: introduction

LUC is a dynamic land use change model that operates ona regular grids of hectare of square kilometer resolution.

LUC is designed to predict land use dynamics over longer periods (10-50 years with annual or monthly time steps), and subsequent socio-economic and environmental impacts, based on:

  • a priori transition probabilities that describe the likelyhood that any given landuse gets transformed into another;
  • first order logic RULES that can modify these a priori probabilities based on
    • temporal and spatial "neighborhood" of the land parcel in question including global properties (summed over all parcels of the model domain);
    • properties of the land and again neighboring parcels; these may express
      • physical attributes such as elevation, slope, soil;
      • local or symbolir properties such as administrative entities;
      • a land use master plan that defines a desired target class;
      • connectivity based on networks of line features such as roads, raileway, power grid, waterways.
The model results are
  • a sequence (time series) of landuse maps that can be viewed step by step, or with continuous animation;
  • trajectories of individual classes, aggregated over the model domain;
  • trajectories of derived features such as energy and water consumption, employment, waste generation and emissions; these are computed from attributes of land use class (area specific variables) that may be expressed as time series to represent changing technologies or regulatory frameworks.

Stochastic scenarios

LUC is basically a stochastic model, where the transition probabilities (modified by the RULES) are "instantiated" by a Monte Carlo method including an iterative component to maintain consistency of global constructs.

When running the model n numerous scenario in parallel, the results can be expressed as the probability distribution (PDF, or modeled frequency distribution) of the possible land use at a certain location and time.

LUC is designed as a pre-processor for scenario analysis for both

  • AirWare,     where land use largely defines emissions;
  • WaterWare, where land use defines both the runoff characteristics as well as the water demand.

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