LUC : Reference Manual
|Release Level || 1.0 |
|Release Date ||2008 11 ||Revision Level ||1.0
LUC is a dynamic land use change model that operates ona regular grids of hectare of square kilometer resolution.
LUC is designed to predict land use dynamics over longer periods (10-50 years with
annual or monthly time steps), and subsequent socio-economic and environmental impacts, based on:
The model results are
- a priori transition probabilities that describe the likelyhood that any given landuse gets transformed
- first order logic RULES that can modify these a priori probabilities based on
- temporal and spatial "neighborhood" of the land parcel in question including global properties (summed over all
parcels of the model domain);
- properties of the land and again neighboring parcels; these may express
- physical attributes such as elevation, slope, soil;
- local or symbolir properties such as administrative entities;
- a land use master plan that defines a desired target class;
- connectivity based on networks of line features such as roads, raileway,
power grid, waterways.
- a sequence (time series) of landuse maps that can be viewed step by step, or with continuous animation;
- trajectories of individual classes, aggregated over the model domain;
- trajectories of derived features such as energy and water consumption, employment,
waste generation and emissions; these are computed from attributes of land use class (area specific variables)
that may be expressed as time series to represent changing technologies or regulatory frameworks.
LUC is basically a stochastic model, where the transition probabilities (modified by the RULES) are
"instantiated" by a Monte Carlo method including an iterative component to maintain consistency of global constructs.
When running the model n numerous scenario in parallel, the results can be expressed as the probability
distribution (PDF, or modeled frequency distribution) of the possible land use at a certain location and time.
LUC is designed as a pre-processor for scenario analysis for
- AirWare, where land use largely defines emissions;
- WaterWare, where land use defines both the runoff
characteristics as well as the water demand.