Cost-Benefit Considerations:
- HITERM benefits
- HITERM costs
Each section is followed by a short summary of the conclusions for the
HITERM design, in terms of:
- Systems architecture
- Systems implementation
- Systems functionality
that can be drawn from the analysis of the report material.
This is followed by a Summary of the Conclusions.
OBJECTIVES OF THE DOCUMENT
The objectives of the Requirements and Constraints Analysis Report are to:
- Compile background data and information on:
- the state of the art of technological risk planning and management
- the regulatory framework for risk planning and management
- the institutional framework
- the technical, financial, and human resources constraints
- specific user requirements for risk analysis
- Analyze the data, including a number of interviews with representative
potential users of HITERM, in terms of user requirements and constraints
- Develop a framework for cost-benefit considerations
- Derive conclusions and guidelines from the requirements and constraints for
the design and implementation of the HITERM system, described in the Deliverables:
HITERM Project Overview:
approach, work plan, and deliverables
HITERM develops and tests a set of HPCN based descision support tools
for technological risk management. The project proceeds in a number of
overlapping phases and prototyping cycles:
the initial exploratory phase compiles detailed user specifications and constraints,
summarized in the Requirements and Constraints Analysis (D01.1) and its three
case-study and country specific sections D01.2,3 and 4,
summarized in an Executive Summary (this document, D01.0).
The main development phase then implements the user requirements defined in D01
in the design and development of the prototype demonstrator; this will be described
in the Deliverables:
- D2 (simulation models);
- D3 (communication architecture);
- D4 (visualization and multi-media);
- D5 (uncertainty analysis);
- D6 (decision support functions)
- D7 (system architecture and integration).
Ths technical documentation will be continuously
updated during the development and test phases of the project.
The Demonstration prototype is then tested and evaluated in parallel case
studies in Italy, Portugal, and Switzerland with the involvement of representative end
users. Another set of Deliverables (D8, D9, D10) summarizes the case study scenarios
and results.
A final evaluation phase will analyze and summarize the experiences from
the case studies, and conclude with a final evaluation report (D11).
INTRODUCTION
Definition of the application domain
HITERM concentrates on technological risk, and in particular:
- Emergency planning: consequence analysis, prevention support, accident
scenario evaluation (Seveso I), public risk information (Safety plans)
- Emergency response training: emergency plan evaluation (Seveso II)
- Emergency management support: real-time intervention management.
Emergency within the framework of HITERM is understood as an
unintended release of hazardous material that causes, or threatens to
cause, harmful effects (casualties, material damages) outside the area of private
plants or storage locations.
HITERM aims to develop HPCN decision support tools for technological risk
management and the environment with:
- better-than-real time complex simulation models (3D, dynamic)
- fully integrated uncertainty analysis and error propagation (Monte Carlo)
- on-line data interpretation, visualization
- integrated MC decision support tools.
HPCN and DSS: the HITERM approach
The ultimate objective of a computer based decision support system is to
improve planning and operational decision making processes by providing useful
and scientifically sound information to the actors involved in these processes,
including public officials, planners and scientists, and possibly the general public.
This information must be:
-
Timely in relation to the dynamics of decision problem;
depending on the nature of the problem (planning, training, or operational risk management)
this implies considerably better than real-time performance of any forecasting, and more
or less immediate response in any situation of interactive use.
Accurate in relation to the information requirements;
this requires the use of state-of-the-art tools, methods, and models,
which usually are demanding in terms of their data requirements and computational
resources;
Directly understandable and useful;
this implies that the output of any numerical method can be presented in a format that is
directly and reliably understandable, that is, graphical and symbolical (in multi-media
formats rather than purely textual and numerical);
Easily obtainable, i.e., cheap in relation to the problems implied costs,
which, however, in the case of technological risk, accidents and emergency
situations can be considerable.
All these requirements for decision support information can, at least in part,
be addressed by high-performance computing and networking (HPCN).
Many data processing, modelling, and communication tasks that appeared prohibitive only a
short while ago become more and more feasible and also commercially viable with the
rapid development of computer and information technology. In particular the possibility
to use clusters of powerful PCs and workstations to configure virtual super-computers
on demand opens new areas of promising applications.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
This section summarizes the main body of the Requirements and Constraints Report ,
General Part (D1.1) and Appendices, and the three case study specific parts
D1.2, D1.3, and D1.4.
Constraints and Background:
Regulatory Framework
Within the European Union technological risk management is covered by the
EC Directive 82/501 EEC (referred to as Seveso I) and subsequent amendments
(87-216 EEC, 88-610 EEC) and the Directive 96-82 EC (Seveso II).
The Directive entered into force on 3 February 1997 and must be transposed
into national law by the Member States within 24 months.
It must be applied as from February 1999 (date of repeal of Directive 82/501/EEC-SEVESO I).
Under this common umbrella, the individual countries have quite different national and
regional implementations. Important aspects are different coverage (for example,
the Seveso Directives do not apply to transportation of hazardous materials and
intermediate storage). Regulations in Switzerland are again different in several
details as compared to the EU regulations.
Conclusions for HITERM:
HITERM must be sufficiently flexible to accommodate the different national regulatory
frameworks, which not only differ, but are also under ongoing modifications as the
new Seveso II Directive reaches its national implementation.
Institutional Framework
The institutional framework for risk assessment and management shows considerable
variability across Europe. No single form of organization can be identified, with a
broad range from very centralized (such as in Italy) to very distributed (such as
in Switzerland) models.
Conclusions for HITERM:
As a consequence, HITERM must be able to adapt to a range of organizational models
easily. Interviews with potential end users have made clear that compatibility
with existing organizational models is a must.
Technical, financial, and human constraints
The analysis of the current situation in the three case study countries demonstrates
that neither the level of computer hardware generally in use, nor the (information
technology) training of responsible personnel can be considered sufficient in the context
of HITERM. Also, financial constraints seem to dictate policy in most institutions
involved in risk management.
Conclusions for HITERM:
Demonstrated cost-efficiency, flexibility in terms of the required hardware,
and ease-of-use (low training requirements) are important design objectives for HITERM.
User Requirements:
User requirements have been compiled from interviews with key industrial and
governmental institutions, as well as a questionnaire, and the analysis of similar
systems as well as established practice. User Requirements vary considerably,
similar to the institutional framework and the different distributions of
responsibilities and authority.
The following list of user requirements is compiled from all three case
studies in Italy (main end user: Regione Lombardia) , Portugal (main end user:
Petrogal), and Switzerland (main end user: cantonal authorities).
Although with different emphasis on the various functional requirements, no
major contradictions were found between the different end users.
Specific user requirements from representative institutions and individuals include:
Information on the evolution in time and space of an emergency and its
driving conditions, in order to predict consequences and the impact area.
This should be derived from advanced state-of-the-art methods and models for
atmospheric diffusion, surface and groundwater pollution.
The system has to be applicable for emergency planning as well as for
emergency management.
Training applications include the definition of likely accident scenarios.
For emergency management, HITERM should be able to provide a basic estimation of
the impact of a transportation accident.
For intervention management, HITERM must be able to acquire and analyze time-critical
data necessary for the simulations fast and reliable.
Speed and reliability in data acquisition, analysis, and communication are
general but crucial requirements.
Monitoring data acquisition should allow to test and re-calibrate the results
of mathematical dispersion models.
Uncertainty of parameters and source terms should be explicitly considered as part
of model based forecasts.
The system must have access to information about chemical and toxicological data
of hazardous substances and suggestions for safety and emergency management.
Information on the environment including meteorological data, area characteristics,
population density and sensitive points are important to the emergency management
Information from the Safety Reports must be an integrated part of the HITERM
information system.
Information on traffic conditions and access route should be available for
intervention forces.
A decision support component is required, although the emphasis varies between
applications to emergency management and training and accident simulations.
The decision making structure of the intervention forces must not be affected by
the system.
It is suggested that HITERM must not have any impact on existing emergency organization
structures. HITERM should be de-centrally operated and include existing manuals and
guidelines. The representation of results should be transparent and easy to interpret.
Technical specifications
No general technical specification other than interoperability with existing legacy
applications (data bases, GIS systems, existing communication technology)
could be derived from requirements and constraints.
Conclusions for the HITERM design:
The overriding conclusions for the design of HITERM is the need for flexibility.
The system must be able to accommodate, preferably in a fully data-driven manner:
- Diverse regulatory frameworks
- Diverse institutional and organizational structures
- Interoperability with legacy systems (data bases, specific models)
As a consequence, a highly flexible and modular client-server architecture based
on standard protocols was chosen.
Systems architecture
The requirement for a high degree of configuration flexibility translates directly into a
modular client-server architecture, where alternative and interchangeable components are
integrated by a common communication protocol based on open standards.
HITERM is based on a client-server architecture that links an easy-to-use front end
(clients) with powerful High Performance Computing as the central analytical tool.
The basic architecture of the system is organized around a central HITERM Server,
that co-ordinates the various information resources (again servers in an N-tier
architecture), prominently including the HPCN components like parallel computers
or workstation clusters for better-than-real-time simulation of demanding models,
potential links to monitoring equipment, and the user interface clients.
Since the communication of the various software components is based on the standard
http protocol, a high degree of hardware independence can be achieved: any platform
and operating system that supports that protocol on top of TCP/IP can be integrated
within this framework, and a wide range of physical carriers, including wire-less
connections, can be used to implement this communication protocol.
For the hardware and software tools used for HITERM, we have to discriminate between:
- the develop platforms and the Demonstrator
- the delivery platforms for a commercial exploitation phase
with the latter constrained by cost considerations and interoperability requirements
with existing hardware and software systems.
Systems implementation
For its implementation, HITERM must provide a number of alternative strategies and
configurations to meet local needs and constraints. This includes the type of
client hardware to support, the communication channels for the client-server linkage,
and the provision of high-performance computing resources. For the latter,
the alternatives:
- fully locally integrated HPCN equipment:
- High-performance (parallel) coputer(s)
- ad-hoc virtual parallel computer (cluster)
- network access to a remote HPCN center,
- complete outsourcing to a service provider
should be supported.
Cost-Benefit Considerations
A cost-benefit analysis for a system like HITERM faces the difficulty of estimating
potential benefits from a decision support system in a low-probability but high
consequence domain, that involves questions of valuation of environmental damage
and human life. Rather than attempting a formal cost-benefit analysis with complete
(and very controversial) monetization, we therefore enumerate major benefits of the
system, and contrast them with the main cost categories.
HITERM benefits
Benefits from HITERM can be expected in several domains:
- Meeting regulatory requirements efficiently
- Improved emergency planning
- Improved emergency training efficiency
- Improved emergency management procedures
Meeting regulatory requirements:
HITERM is designed to support the implementation of the new Seveso Directive
including its requirements for public access to safety plans.
Improved emergency planning:
HITERM is designed to analyze external safety plans. It will help to design and
evaluate probable accident scenarios and their consequences with a high level
of accuracy, based on advanced simulation technology, and thus to develop efficient and
effective emergency plans.
Improved emergency training:
The simulation capabilities of HITERM provide a very cost-effective tool to
support costly field exercises for emergency response training.
Improved emergency management:
Improved accident management through faster and better information on the likely
evolution of an emergency, and decision support information for its management,
can lead to considerable cost savings.
HITERM costs
Cost for a system like HITERM results from the following components:
- Basic Computing and Communication hardware:
Central server, clients, client-server communication, communication to external
information resources like monitoring equipment.
Costs will strongly depend on the number of clients, and the communication
system and channels used.
- High-Performance computing requirements:
This can based on:
- the purchase of the necessary computing equipment;
- the configuration of a virtual parallel machine (cluster) on demand;
- obtaining HPCN capacity from an external provider.
Costs will primarily depend on the configuration chosen and the frequency and
extent of use.
- System software, licensing and maintenance:
- Internal option that requires dedicated maintenance staff
- External option based on outsourcing to a service provider
Data compilation and maintenance:
Costs will depend primarily on data availability as well as the geographical
scope of the implementation.
- User training:
Depends primarily on the number of people involved and the frequency of training.
Computer-based training modules within the system itself could provide a very
flexible low-cost solution.
In summary, the investment cost for a complete HITERM installation is
expected range between 100 to 500 KECU, with annual operating and maintenance
costs in the order of at least one full time person or approximately 100 KECU.
SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
HITERM must provide a high degree of flexibility for customization and local
configuration, including alternative computational and communication strategies.
It should therefor be developed as an open tool-kit rather than a fixed, rigid system.
Regulatory and institutional constraints as well as national language requirements must
be easy to meet as fully data-driven configuration options.
HITERM must demonstrate its efficiency in terms of:
- Improved access to large but integrated volumes of background information
- Improved accuracy of analysis and forecasts (model results)
- Improved speed and reliability of the information provided
- Ease of use and a directly understandable graphical and symbolic user interface
- Cost efficiency of the proposed solution.
The specific conclusions related to the constraints identified are:
- Regulatory Framework:
- HITERM must be sufficiently flexible to accommodate the different national regulatory
frameworks, which not only differ, but are also under ongoing modifications as the
new Seveso II Directive reaches its national implementation.
- Institutional Framework:
- HITERM must be able to adapt to a range of organizational models
easily. Interviews with potential end users have made clear that compatibility
with existing organizational models is a must.
- Technical, Financial, and Human Constraints:
- Demonstrated cost-efficiency, flexibility in terms of the required hardware,
and ease-of-use (low training requirements) are important design objectives
for HITERM.
