Project On-line Deliverables: D12.1

Technology Implementation Plan

1. Identification

Programme name	Esprit High-Performance Computing and networking
Result title	HITERM/RiskWare: A Decision Support System for Technological Risk Management
Result Acronym	HITERM / RiskWare
Project number	22723
Project name	HITERM
Date of update	28 December 1999
Contact person	Dr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH PO Box 100 A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen AUSTRIA Tel: +43 2252 63305 Fax: +43 2252 633059 kurt@ess.co.at
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2. Abstract

RiskWare (the product resulting from the HITERM R&D project) is a model-based decision support system for technological risk assessment and management, combining data bases, GIS, high-performance modeling, and a hybrid expert system. Designed to support the implementation of 96/82/EC (Seveso II) its functions include risk assessment, real-time risk management, and risk training.

3. Summary

RiskWare is a model based decision support system for technological and environmental risk analysis.

RiskWare provides an integrated framework for easy access to advanced tools of technological and environmental risk assessment, ranging from strategic planning to training and real time emergency management. RiskWare's flexible framework and set of components can be configured to meet the information needs of a wide range of risk assessment and management tasks.

RiskWare combines:

• Integrated object data base management for hazardous chemicals (MSDS) and risk objects such as chemical plants, fuel depots, gas stations, airports, harbor installations, but also hospitals, fire engine depots, etc., linked to

• A geographic information system (GIS)

• A suite of simulation and assessment models for strategic analysis and planning tasks, and fast emergency simulation with

• Embedded expert systems functionality for assessment tasks.

• A real-time emergency management expert system for operational guidance, that can provide the framework for the analytical components and data bases, including

• Assessment, reporting and documentation functions as well as

• External communication control such as the automatic sending of fax or e-mail messages with dynamically generated content.

RiskWare is designed as a modular system; it can integrate a range of information resources:

• Geographic background data including administrative divisions, land use and land cover, population data, transportation networks, water bodies, orography (DEMs), satellite imagery and aerial photography, that are managed with the embedded GIS;

• Observation time-series data, including the linkage to on-line monitoring stations, and the statistical analysis of these time series data;

• Risk Objects for a range of different types of hazardous installations or infra structural elements relevant for risk assessment and management tasks;

• An embedded rule-based expert system simplifies the task of estimating unknown properties and data;

• A range of emergency simulation models, including the fully integrated spill and pool evaporation model, a fire (trench, pool, BLEVE) and a diagnostic wind field model, providing input for a dynamic multi-puff model, a dynamic 3D Eulerian atmospheric dispersion model, and explosion simulation (TNT and fuel-air charge blast model).

• Linkage (LAN/WAN) to external models that require supercomputer performance can be accomplished through a generic model communication interface based on TCP/IP and http.

The main components are integrated with an interactive and graphical user interface designed for users with little or no computer experience, and for use under emergency conditions.

RiskWare is presented in full detail under http://www.ess.co.at/RISK.

4. Business perspective

As a commercial product, RiskWare represents a bundle of several software components that can be licensed together with consultancy services that can be offered in support of, or by using, the software. This includes performing contract studies with the system, but also the compilation of the necessary data and technical support for end users, including the possibility to provide computational (high-performance computing) services to end users.

The range of exploitation options therefor includes:

• licensing of the software components to end users or value-added distributors;
• providing consultancy services on the basis of the software;
• providing consultancy and user support for end users;
• offering computing services for the high-performance components;
• exploitation of the development components and experience gained in related products and projects.

The target user groups for the HITERM project results, the RiskWare system, can be grouped into two main types:

• private industry (primarily the chemical industry, but also the transportation sector, power generation, heavy industry, etc.): any industrial sector that is either subject to the Seveso II Directive, or involves major technological risks (chemical emergencies, explosion, fires, structural failure etc.) that may require specific emergency preparedness and management tools;

• public administrations responsible for emergency management and civil protection including fire brigades, the national competent authorities under Seveso II (96/82/EC) in the EU, and comparable institutions in other countries. Please note that while the HITERM project and demonstrator concentrate of chemical emergencies as defined in the Executive Summary version of the Requirements and Constraints Report, RiskWare can address the entire range of technological and environmental emergencies where the basic methodology is applicable.

The size of this market is considerable: concentrating on the chemical industry only, in the US alone, about 250,000 chemical industrial plants are subject to the latest regulations on emergency planning and management.

Even if the European regulations are less stringent, the current European common market may be of a comparable size, but larger companies where the major regulations apply are still numbering several thousand in the EU.

Globally, this would encompass for the chemical industry alone, a market size of at least 500,000 chemical plants and enterprises that are potential users of an emergency management system like RiskWare.

The number of public institutions is in the same order of magnitude if not larger. While national and regional bodies concerned with emergency management are in the order of thousands, the local level, and in particular fire fighters command centers, are again in the hundreds of thousands world wide.

5. Multi-media supporting material -
Business perspective

The thumbnail sketches are links to the original screendumps with a resolution of 1280*1024 pixel, stored in GIF format; you can view and/or download these original full resolution files, average sizes vary around 120K to 580K.

RiskWare provides a flexible framework and set of components that can be configured to meet the information needs of a wide range of risk assessment and management tasks.

Integrated object data base management for hazardous chemicals (MSDS) and risk objects such as chemical plants, fuel depots, gas stations, airports, harbor installations, but also hospitals, fire engine depots, etc., These objects are linked to the GIS, the expert system, and the simulation models.
A geographic information system (GIS) for the management of spatial data and the preparation of background maps; The embedded GIS is used for numerous display functions of spatial model results.
A suite of simulation and assessment models for strategic analysis and planning tasks, and fast emergency simulation. All models are implemented as probabilistic models in a Monte Carlo framework. RiskWare including models (from upper left, clockwise) for: substance release, fire (pool. trench, BLEVE), atmospheric dispersion, soil contamination, explosion, atmospheric dispersion.
Embedded expert systems functionality for assessment and estimation tasks; based on a backward chaining approach, the rule-based expert system is used for estimation and classification tasks, from parameter estimation to model results interpretation, and a real-time Emergency Management Expert System for operational guidance that can provide the framework for the analytical components and data bases, using a forward chaining approach with RULES and ACTIONS, including
linkage to on-line data acquisition tools for the real-time access to external data sources such as sensors, meteorological stations, imagery, or data bases e.g., for hazardous chemicals or a railway cargo data base and external communication control such as the automatic sending of fax or e-mail messages with dynamically generated content are part of the assessment and reporting and documentation functions of the RiskWare system.

6. An overview from a technical perspective

The RiskWare system provides an integrated framework for easy access to advanced tools of technological and environmental risk assessment, ranging from strategic planning to training and real-time emergency management.

RiskWare provides a flexible framework and set of components that can be configured to meet the information needs of a wide range of risk assessment and management tasks.

RiskWare can operate in a

• Risk assessment mode: here accident scenarios as foreseen under the Seveso II Directive (96/82/EC) are analysed through probabilistic simulation models, and impacts on external safety analysed (for example, population exposure). This helps to prepare and validate emergency plans.

• Risk management mode: here the real-time expert system provides advise to the operator in an emergency control center; the system compiles information, analyses it, makes forecasts of possible developments based on its simulation models, and suggest courses of action for the intervention teams, as well as maintaining communication between the groups involved.

7. How it works

The HITERM projects has produced three major demonstration cases, each illustrated with a slide-show "how it works":

Chemical process plants (Italy) using the example of the Ponte S.Pietro industrial district in Bergamo, Northern Italy, a number of accident scenarios following the Seveso II guidelines for the plants in this area have been formulated and simulated. The primary objective of the Italian Demonstrator was to show a completely integrated operational system including the transparent integration of high-performance parallel models (spill, wind field, Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model) based on PVM and a workstation cluster.
Railway transport (Switzerland) The Swiss Demonstrator concentrates on the transport of hazardous material by train across the strategic North-South Alpine corridors. The example of the Reuss valley as a steep alpine valley with an extreme orography poses a considerable challenge to the atmospheric dispersion models, but demonstrates the need for advanced complex models and thus high-performance computing to obtain realistic and reliable forecasts of the evolution of an emergency. The case study implements the RTXPS real-time expert system as the decision support framework for emergency management.
Road transport (Portugal) The Portuguese test case finally concentrates on a very practical case: more than a hundred fuel trucks make the daily trip from the Aveiras fuel depot to the Airport of Lisbon along the major North-South highway leading into the capital. Accident scenarios for the fuel trucks include fire, explosion, and soil and groundwater contamination. An on-board alarm unit with GPS/GSM communication triggers the RTXPS expert system.

In addition to the three major case studies, and a number of smaller applications, primarily designed to test and illustrate specific features and functions of the system have been built.

These demonstration cases also include on-line web-based client-server demos of:

The Metodo Speditivo fast risk assessment method; The Italian Method for the: PIANIFICAZIONE DI EMERGENZA ESTERNA PER IMPIANTI INDUSTRIALI A RISCHIO DI INCIDENTE RILEVANTE (Metodo Speditivo) uses a set of tabulated values for primary and secondary impact zones, based on the substance characteristics, the amount, storage conditions, and finally the weather where atmospheric dispersion of a toxic substance is among the impact scenarios. The Dynamic Multi-Puff atmospheric dispersion model in combination with the DWM multi-layer diagnostic wind model describes the dynamic evolution of an intermittent atmospheric release typical for an accidental spill. The model can be used for complex terrain and time-variable release patterns and is linked to an assessment branch that estimates population exposure.

8. An overview of the current applications of the results

9. Multi-media supporting material -
Current Applications

Slide shows have been developed for each of the case study applications, plus a first implementation for the Provinzia di Pisa, Italy:

• Chemical process plants (Italy)
  

• Railway transport (Switzerland)
  

• Road transport (Portugal)
  

• SIGRIC: SIstema di Gestione RIschio Chimico, an implementation for the province of Pisa, Italy.

10. Terms and conditions for using the results

Server platforms supported

• Intel Pentium under Linux
• SUN SPARC under Solaris
• IBM RS6000 under AIX
• HP Risc under HP-UX

Client platforms

RiskWare base system

• system framework with GUI, help and explain hypertext, on-line manuals;
• embedded hybrid GIS;
• risk object data base (hazardous installations)
• hazardous chemicals data base (structure and TEMPLATEs)
• embedded rule-based expert system ;
• basic simulation models for:
  • chemical spills (evaporation, dispersion)
  • explosion (TNT and fuel-air charge blast models)
  • fire model (pool, trench, BLEVE)
  • 1D soil/groundwater contamination model
  • Metodo Speditivo (fast assessment)
• emergency management real-time expert system framework and sample Knowledge Base.

Additional or alternative simulation models such as the parallel models including a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model can be integrated on request.

Internet extension

includes the client/server software for Java clients, unlimited number of clients, and a module for public environmental information (web server) for public access to Safety Report and Emergency Plan data (96/82/EC).

Maintenance, support, training

All RiskWare installations include, free of charge:

• on-site installation and testing;
• assistance with data preparations from electronic sources (excludes digitizing or manual data entry which we offer on a per-effort basis);
• user training; options include intensive courses on-site and on-the-job training at ESS or the local distribution partner;
• a one-year support and maintenance package.

Continuing maintenance, user support, and updates are offered on an annual support contract basis.

Contact us for quotations for

• external high-performance model components;
• hazardous chemicals and MSDS data base;
• emergency management rule-base development.

Pricing options

For a single server, unlimited clients version (open ended, non-transferable binary license), including the above installation, training, and first year support package:

RiskWare base system	ECU 45,000
Internet extensions	ECU 15,000
Annual support	ECU 10,000

We also offer a limited one-year test license of the RiskWare base system including data preparation, installation, training and continuing support for ECU 15,000; this will be credited in case of a full license purchase within a year.

RiskWare is also available in attractive turn-key configurations, pre-installed and ready-to-run on SUN Microsystems's new line of powerful Ultra workstations, from the attractively priced entry-level Ultra 5 to the powerful two-processor Ultra 60 or a four processor 450 HPCN configuration, or dual-processor Pentium systems from Dell under Red Hat Linux.

Contact us for an offer and configuration proposal with the machine of your choice !

11. Interviews

For an interview, call us preferably during business hours at +43 2252 63305, or make an appointment by e-mail: info@ess.co.at, any time !

12. Simulations, demonstrations, videos

13. Pilot implementations of the result

14. Publications and other items

Fedra, K. (1998)

Integrated Risk Assessment and Management: Overview and State-of-the-Art.
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 61 (1998) 5-22.
On-line Abstract   On-line Paper

Fedra, K. (1998)

High Performance Computing for Environmental Management:
Monitoring, Simulation, Decision Support.
Presented at the IST'98 workshop: IST Applications and Services for Environmental Management in European Cities and Regions, Austria Center Vienna, December 2, 1998.
On-line Paper

Fedra, K. and Winkelbauer, L. (1999)

A hybrid expert system, GIS and simulation modeling for environmental and technological risk management. In: Environmental Decision Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence, Technical Report WS-99-07, pp 1-7, AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA.
On-line Paper (HTML)

Gerharz, I. ; Mieth, P. ; Unger, S. (2000)

A software system for environmental risk management - the HITERM approach, Systems Analysis Modelling Simulation, (to be published)

Mieth, P.; Unger, S.; Gerharz, I. (1999)

A model based tool for environmental risk management after accidental atmospheric release of toxic substances, In: MODSIM 99 - International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (Proceedings), Vol. 3, Oxley, L.; Scrimgeour, F.; Jakeman, A. (eds.), 562-572

Mieth, P.; Unger, S.; Gerharz, I.; Jugel, M. L. (1999)

HITERM: ein Arbeitsplatz für das Störfall-Management, Der GMD-Spiegel, Nr. 1/2, 45-47

Unger, S. ; Gerharz, I. ; Mieth, P. ; Wottrich, S. (1998)

HITERM - High-Performance Computing for Technological Risk Management, Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation, Vol. 15, 3, 109-114

Zani, F. (1998)

HITERM High Performance Technological and environmental Risk Management: strumenti informatici on-line di supporto alla pianificazione e gestione delle emergenze industriali. VGR 98 Conference, Pisa (I) 6-8 October

15. Information about the project

Austria

ESS Environmental Software & Services GmbH
PO Box 100, Kalkgewerk 1
A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen AUSTRIA
tel: +43 2252 633 05
fax: +43 2252 633059
mailing group: hiterm@ess.co.at

Contacts:
kurt@ess.co.at (Kurt Fedra)
lothar@ess.co.at (Lothar Winkelbauer)

Germany

GMD - Institute for Computer Architecture and Software Technology
Rudower Chaussee 5
D-12489 Berlin GERMANY
tel: +49 30 63921816
fax: +49 30 63 92 18 05
Contacts:
lux@first.gmd.de (Thomas Lux)
sydow@first.gmd.de (Achim Sydow)
unger@first.gmd.de (Steffen Unger)

Italy

SYRECO S.R.L - Affidabilita, Sicurezza, Software
Via al Lido, 5
I-21026 Gavirate (VA) ITALY
tel: +390 332 730273
fax: +390 332 730280
Contacts:
fzani@syreco.it (Fausto Zani)

Portugal:

LNEC Informática SA
Av. do Brasil 101
1700 Lisboa PORTUGAL
tel: +351 1 8472165
fax: +351 1 8472164
Contacts:
lac@lnec.pt (Luis Arriaga)

FCCN Fundaçáo para a Computaçáo Cientifica Nacional
Av. do Brasil 101
1700 Lisboa PORTUGAL
tel: +351 1 844 0110
fax:
Contacts:
flo@rccn.net (Florentino Gameiro)
ferreira@rccn.net (Joao Ferreira)

PETROGAL, Petroleos de Portugal, SA
Rua das Flores, 7
1200 Lisboa PORTUGAL
tel: +351 1 3102543
fax: +351 1 3102954
Contacts:
gasparsantos@mail.telepac.pt (Gaspar Santos)

Switzerland

ASIT, Safety and Information Systems in Transport Ltd.
Bitziusstrasse 40 Postfach 130
CH-3000 Bern 32 SWITZERLAND
tel: +41 31 352 94 77
fax: +41 31 352 94 56
Contacts:
Nikolaus.Seifert@asit.ch (Nikolaus Seifert)

16. Summary of the project

Within the framework of High Performance Computing and Networking (HPCN) Information Management and Decision Support, HITERM expands the application of HPCN to decision support in new domains, the central focus being the interface between technological risk management and the environment, providing a complex and demanding testing ground.

Using distributed parallel computing with massive parallel machines or workstation clusters, the project delivers better-than real time performance for the simulation of accidental releases of hazardous substances into the atmosphere, ground and surface water; interactive decision support for emergency planning, training, and management being the main goal.

17. Information about the company

ESS is committed to bring the best available scientific knowledge and information technology to bear on environmental planning, management, policy and decision making problems.

Applied Systems Analysis
Environmental Sciences
Information Technology

For its projects, the ESS project team is using -- and developing -- state-of-the-art information technology, including models, GIS, and expert systems as well as multi-media Internet services. ESS develops Information Technology Solutions in a number of application domains under the general theme of Environmental Systems Analysis:

	Environmental Information and Decision Support Systems:	environmental planning and management, policy analysis, state-of-the-environment reporting, multi-criteria decision analysis
	Pollution Control and Management	for air, surface and groundwater, soil system, and coastal marine systems
	Technological Risk Assessment	hazardous substances and waste management, emergency planning and management
	Environmental Impact Assessment	expert systems and models for screening and project evaluation
	Natural Resources Management	water resources, river basins, water supply systems, and land management
	Regional and Urban Development Planning	transportation and energy systems, landuse management.

For further details please see our homepage http://www.ess.co.at or contact us at info@ess.co.at.

18. Contact persons

Type of contact Technical, Business First name Kurt Last name Fedra   Dr. Job title Director Company Environmental Software & Services GmbH Address PO Box 100, Kalkgewerk 1 City Gumpoldskirchen Country AUSTRIA Post code A-2352 Telephone +43 2252 63305 Fax +43 2252 633059 E-mail kurt@ess.co.at