Project On-line Deliverables: D05.0

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Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis

Technical Report (DRAFT)

    Programme name: ESPRIT
    Domain: HPCN
    Project acronym: HITERM
    Contract number: 22723
    Project title: High-Performance Computing and Networking
    for Technological and Environmental Risk Management
    Project Deliverable: D05.0
    Related Work Package:   WP 2
    Type of Deliverable: Technical Report
    Dissemination level: project internal
    Document Author: Peter Mieth, Susanne Wottrich, GMD
    Edited by: Kurt Fedra, ESS
    Document Version: 1.0 (DRAFT)
    First Availability: 1998 01
    Last Modification: 1998 01




A APPENDIX

A.1 Original Routine

    subroutine  evapor  (t,rpar,evap)
c
c This subroutine computes the evaporation rate per unit area
c at time t after the spill of a (volatile) liquid dependent on
c geographical, climatological and meteorological data of the
c environment as well as the physico-chemical properties of the
c liquid, the surrounding air and the underlying ground.
c Ref.: P.I. Kawamura and D. Mackay,
c J. Hazardous Materials, 15 (1987) 343-364.
c
c INPUT:
c
c t ...... time elapsed since the spill [s]
c
c sa     = rpar(1)  [rad]
c cloud  = rpar(2)  [%]
c ubar10 = rpar(3)  [m/s]
c tempa  = rpar(4)  [K]
c diamp  = rpar(5)  [m]
c depthp = rpar(6)  [m]
c wtmol  = rpar(7)  [g/mol]
c dab    = rpar(8)  [m2/s]
c conliq = rpar(9)  [J/msK]
c boilp  = rpar(10) [oC]
c vapht  = rpar(11) [J/mol]
c a      = rpar(12)
c b      = rpar(13)
c c      = rpar(14)
c
c sa ....... solar altitude [rad]
c cloud .... cloud cover [%]
c ubar10 ... wind speed measured at 10 m [m/s]
c tempa .... ambient air temperature [K]
c diamp .... pool diameter or downwind length of pool [m]
c depthp ... initial depth of the pool [m]
c wtmol .... molecular weight of the liquid [g/mol]
c dab ...... diffusivity of the liquid in air [m2/s]
c conliq ... thermal conductivity of the liquid [J/msK]
c boilp .... boiling point of the liquid [oC]
c vapht .... heat of vaporization (latent heat of evaporation)
[J/mol]
c a ...... } coefficients for the vapor pressure equation of the
c b ...... } form     press = exp(a-b/(T+c)) [Pa]
c c ...... } where    T ... temperature [K]
c
c     OUTPUT:
c
c     evap ..... evaporation rate [g/m2s]
c
c ENDDOC-------------------------------last revision:1988-01-13 mp
    implicit           undefined (a-z)
c
    real               t,  rpar(*),  evap
c
    real               sa,  cloud,  ubar10,  tempa
    real               diamp,  depthp,  a,  b,  c
        real               wtmol,  dab,  conliq,  boilp,  vapht
    real               rgas,  visair,  congrd,  difgrd,  pi
    real               qsol,  schmdt,  trmass,  hgrd
    real               hliqi,  ugrd,  er,  press,  ea,  z, 
s,  beta
c
c rgas ..... universal gas constant [Pam3/molK]
c visair ... kinematic viscosity of air [m2/s]
c congrd ... thermal conductivity of saturated sand [J/msK]
c difgrd ... thermal diffusivity of sand [m2/s]
c
    data  rgas  /8.314/
    data  visair  /0.000015/
    data  congrd  /2.083333/
    data  difgrd  /0.7e-6/
    data  pi  /3.1415927/
c
    sa = rpar(1)
    cloud = rpar(2)
    ubar10 = rpar(3)
    tempa = rpar(4)
        diamp = rpar(5)
    depthp = rpar(6)
    wtmol = rpar(7)
    dab = rpar(8)
    conliq = rpar(9)
    boilp = rpar(10)
    vapht = rpar(11)
    a = rpar(12)
    b = rpar(13)
    c = rpar(14)
c
c *** Preliminary calculations ***
c
c Compute net solar insulation [J/m2s]:
c Ref.: J.M. Raphael,
c Prediction of temperature in rivers and reservoirs,
c Proc. Amer. Soc. Civ. Eng., J.Power Div., 88 P02, 1962.
c
    qsol = 1111.1111*(1.-0.000071*cloud*cloud)*(sin(sa)-0.1)
    if (qsol .lt. 0.) qsol = 0.
c
c Compute mass transfer coefficient [m/s]:
c Ref.: D. Mackay and R.S. Matsugu, Evaporation rate of hydrocarbon 
c spills on water and land, Can. J. Chem. Eng., 5 (1973) 434.
c
    schmdt = visair/dab
    trmass = 0.0047864*ubar10**0.78/(diamp**0.11*schmdt**0.67)
c
c Compute ground heat transfer coefficients:
c
c 1) time dependent heat transfer coefficient at the
c liquid-ground interface [J/m2sK]:
c Ref.: J.P. Holman, Heat Transfer, McGraw Hill, New York, 1976.
c
    hgrd = 2.*congrd/sqrt(pi*difgrd*t)
c
c 2) (invers of) liquid heat transfer coefficient [J/m2sK]:
c
    hliqi = depthp/(conliq*(1.+exp(-0.06*(boilp-70.))))
c
c 3) overall heat transfer coefficient [J/m2sK]:
c
    ugrd = 1./(1./hgrd+hliqi)
c
c *** Direct evaporation model ***
c
c Evaporation due to solar insulation:
    er = qsol*wtmol/vapht
c
c Liquid evaporation rate:
c
    press = exp(a-b/(tempa-273+c))
    ea = trmass*wtmol*press/(rgas*tempa)
c
c Compute factor z and slope of vapor pressure curve s [Pa/K]:
c
c
    z = (3650120.*schmdt**0.67+ugrd*rgas*tempa/trmass)/vapht
    s = press*b/(tempa-273+c)**2
c
c Finally compute evaporation rate [g/m2s]:
c
    beta = s/(s+z)
    evap = er*beta+ea*(1.-beta)
    return
    end

A.2 Changed Declarations

c
    subroutine  evapor  (t,upar,rpar,evap)
c
c INPUT:
c
c t ...... time elapsed since the spill [s]
c
    sa = upar(1)
    cloud = upar(2)
    ubar10 = upar(3)
    tempa = upar(4)
        diamp = upar(5)
    depthp = upar(6)
    wtmol = rpar(1)
    dab = rpar(2)
    conliq = rpar(3)
    boilp = rpar(4)
    vapht = rpar(5)
    a = rpar(6)
    b = rpar(7)
    c = rpar(8)




A.3 Routine created by ADIFOR

C DISCLAIMER
C
C This file was generated on 11/17/97 by the version of
C ADIFOR compiled on Aug 21 1995.
C
C ADIFOR was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an
C agency of the United States Government, Rice University, and
C the University of Chicago.  NEITHER THE AUTHOR(S), THE UNITED
C STATES GOVERNMENT NOR ANY AGENCY THEREOF, NOR RICE UNIVERSITY,
C NOR THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, INCLUDING ANY OF THEIR EMPLOYEES
C OR OFFICERS, MAKES ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, OR ASSUMES
C ANY LEGAL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY,
COMPLETE-
C NESS, OR USEFULNESS OF ANY INFORMATION OR PROCESS DISCLOSED, OR
C REPRESENTS THAT ITS USE WOULD NOT INFRINGE PRIVATELY OWNED
RIGHTS.
C
C
      subroutine g_evapor(g_p_, t, upar, g_upar, rpar, evap,
g_evap)
C
C
C This subroutine computes the evaporation rate per unit area
C at time t after the spill of a (volatile) liquid dependent on
C geographical, climatological and meteorological data of the
C environment as well as the physico-chemical properties of the
C liquid, the surrounding air and the underlying ground.
C Ref.: P.I. Kawamura and D. Mackay,
C J. Hazardous Materials, 15 (1987) 343-364.
C
C INPUT:
C
C t ...... time elapsed since the spill [s]
C
C sa     = upar(1)  [rad]
C cloud  = upar(2)  [%]
C ubar10 = upar(3)  [m/s]
C tempa  = upar(4)  [K]
C diamp  = upar(5)  [m]
C depthp = upar(6)  [m]
C wtmol  = rpar(1)  [g/mol]
C dab    = rpar(2)  [m2/s]
C conliq = rpar(3)  [J/msK]
C boilp  = rpar(4) [oC]
C vapht  = rpar(5) [J/mol]
C a      = rpar(6)
C b      = rpar(7)
C c      = rpar(8)
C
C sa ...... solar altitude [rad]
C cloud ... cloud cover [%]
C ubar10 .. wind speed measured at 10 m [m/s]
C tempa ... ambient air temperature [K]
C diamp ... pool diameter or downwind length of pool [m]
C depthp .. initial depth of the pool [m]
C wtmol ... molecular weight of the liquid [g/mol]
C dab ..... diffusivity of the liquid in air [m2/s]
C conliq .. thermal conductivity of the liquid [J/msK]
C boilp ... boiling point of the liquid [\373C]
C vapht ... heat of vaporization (=latent heat of evaporation)
[J/mol]
C a ..... } coefficients for the vapor pressure equation of the
C b ......} form     press = exp(a-b/(T+c)) [Pa]
C c ..... } where    T ... temperature [K]
C
C OUTPUT:
C
C evap ..... evaporation rate [g/m2s]
C
C ENDDOC-------------------------------last revision:1988-01-13
mp
C implicit           undefined (a-z)
C
        real t, upar(*), rpar(*), evap
C
        real sa, cloud, ubar10, tempa
        real diamp, depthp, a, b, c
        real wtmol, dab, conliq, boilp, vapht
        real rgas, visair, congrd, difgrd, pi
        real qsol, schmdt, trmass, hgrd
        real hliqi, ugrd, er, press, ea, z, s, beta
C
C rgas ..... universal gas constant [Pam3/molK]
C visair ... kinematic viscosity of air [m2/s]
C congrd ... thermal conductivity of saturated sand [J/msK]
C difgrd ... thermal diffusivity of sand [m2/s]
C
    integer g_pmax_
    parameter (g_pmax_ = 6)
    integer g_i_, g_p_
    real r1_w, r2_p, r1_p, r9_b, r8_b, r7_b, r6_b, r5_b, r2_v,
    r3_v
    real r4_v, r5_v, r6_v, r7_v, r8_v, r4_b, r3_b, r2_b,
    g_sa(g_pmax_), g_upar(g_pmax_, *)
    real g_cloud(g_pmax_), g_ubar10(g_pmax_),
    g_tempa(g_pmax_), g_diamp(g_pmax_), g_depthp(g_pmax_),
    g_qsol(g_pmax_), g_trmass(g_pmax_), g_hliqi(g_pmax_),
    g_ugrd(g_pmax_),g_er(g_pmax_)
    real g_r1_w(g_pmax_), g_press(g_pmax_), g_ea(g_pmax_),
    g_z(g_pmax_), g_s(g_pmax_), g_beta(g_pmax_),
    g_evap(g_pmax_)
    save g_er, g_r1_w, g_press, g_ea, g_z, g_s, g_beta
    save g_sa, g_cloud, g_ubar10, g_tempa, g_diamp, g_depthp,
    g_qsol, g_trmass, g_hliqi, g_ugrd
        intrinsic real
        data rgas /8.314/
        data visair /0.000015/
        data congrd /2.083333/
        data difgrd /0.7e-6/
        data pi /3.1415927/
C
        integer g_ehfid
        data g_ehfid /0/
C
        call ehsfid(g_ehfid, \324evapor\325,\325g_evapor.f\325)
C
        if (g_p_ .gt. g_pmax_) then
          print *, \324Parameter g_p_ is greater than g_pmax_\325
          stop
        endif
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_sa(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 1)
        enddo
        sa = upar(1)
C--------
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_cloud(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 2)
        enddo
        cloud = upar(2)
C--------
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_ubar10(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 3)
        enddo
        ubar10 = upar(3)
C--------
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_tempa(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 4)
        enddo
        tempa = upar(4)
C--------
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_diamp(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 5)
        enddo
        diamp = upar(5)
C--------
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_depthp(g_i_) = g_upar(g_i_, 6)
        enddo
        depthp = upar(6)
C--------
        wtmol = rpar(1)
        dab = rpar(2)
        conliq = rpar(3)
        boilp = rpar(4)
        vapht = rpar(5)
        a = rpar(6)
        b = rpar(7)
        c = rpar(8)
C
C *** Preliminary calculations ***
C
C Compute net solar insulation [J/m2s]:
C Ref.: J.M. Raphael,
C Prediction of temperature in rivers and reservoirs,
C Proc. Amer. Soc. Civ. Eng., J.Power Div., 88 P02, 1962.
C
        r2_v = 0.000071 * cloud
        r5_v = 1111.1111 * (1. - r2_v * cloud)
        r7_v = sin(sa)
        r1_p = cos(sa)
        r8_v = r7_v - 0.1
        r5_b = r5_v * r1_p
        r7_b = -(r8_v * 1111.1111)
        r9_b = r7_b * r2_v + r7_b * cloud * 0.000071
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_qsol(g_i_) = r9_b * g_cloud(g_i_) + r5_b * g_sa(g_i_)
        enddo
        qsol = r5_v * r8_v
C--------
        if (qsol .lt. 0.) then
          do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
            g_qsol(g_i_) = 0.0
          enddo
          qsol = 0.
C--------
        endif
C
C Compute mass transfer coefficient [m/s]:
C Ref.: D. Mackay and R.S. Matsugu,
C Evaporation rate of hydrocarbon spills on water and land,
C Can. J. Chem. Eng., 5 (1973) 434.
C
        schmdt = visair / dab
        if ( ubar10 .ne. 0.0e0 ) then
           r2_v = ubar10 ** ( 0.78 - 2.0e0)
           r2_v =  r2_v * ubar10
           r2_p =  0.78 *  r2_v
           r2_v =  r2_v * ubar10
        else
           r2_v = ubar10 **  0.78
           if ( (0.0e0 .lt.  0.78) .and. ( 0.78 .lt. 1.0e0) ) then
             call ehbfSO (10,ubar10, 0.78, r2_v, r2_p, 0.0, +g_ehfid,+197)
           else
              r2_p = 0.0e0
           endif
        endif
        if ( diamp .ne. 0.0e0 ) then
           r5_v = diamp ** ( 0.11 - 2.0e0)
           r5_v =  r5_v * diamp
           r1_p =  0.11 *  r5_v
           r5_v =  r5_v * diamp
        else
           r5_v = diamp **  0.11
           if ( (0.0e0 .lt.  0.11) .and. ( 0.11 .lt. 1.0e0) )
then
        call ehbfSO (10,diamp, 0.11, r5_v, r1_p, 0.0,
    +g_ehfid, +212)
           else
        r1_p = 0.0e0
           endif
        endif
        r6_v = r5_v * schmdt ** 0.67
        r7_v = 0.0047864 * r2_v / r6_v
        r5_b = -r7_v / r6_v * schmdt ** 0.67 * r1_p
        r7_b = 1.0 / r6_v * 0.0047864 * r2_p
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
     g_trmass(g_i_) = r7_b * g_ubar10(g_i_) + r5_b
     * g_diamp(g_i_)
        enddo
        trmass = r7_v
C--------
C
C Compute ground heat transfer coefficients:
C
C 1) time dependent heat transfer coefficient at the
C liquid-ground interface [J/m2sK]:
C Ref.: J.P. Holman, Heat Transfer, McGraw Hill, New York, 1976.
C
        hgrd = 2. * congrd / sqrt(pi * difgrd * t)
C
C 2) (invers of) liquid heat transfer coefficient [J/m2sK]:
C
        r2_b = 1.0 / (conliq * (1. + exp(-0.06 * (boilp - 70.))))
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_hliqi(g_i_) = r2_b * g_depthp(g_i_)
        enddo
        hliqi = depthp / (conliq * (1. + exp(-0.06 * (boilp - 70.))))
C--------
C
C 3) overall heat transfer coefficient [J/m2sK]:
C
        r2_v = 1. / hgrd + hliqi
        r3_v = 1. / r2_v
        r3_b = -r3_v / r2_v
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_ugrd(g_i_) = r3_b * g_hliqi(g_i_)
        enddo
        ugrd = r3_v
C--------
C
C *** Direct evaporation model ***
C
C Evaporation due to solar insulation:
C
        r3_b = 1.0 / vapht * wtmol
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_er(g_i_) = r3_b * g_qsol(g_i_)
        enddo
        er = qsol * wtmol / vapht
C--------
C
C Liquid evaporation rate:
C
        r3_v = tempa - real(273) + c
        r4_v = b / r3_v
        r5_b = -(-r4_v / r3_v)
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_r1_w(g_i_) = r5_b * g_tempa(g_i_)
        enddo
        r1_w = a - r4_v
        r2_v = exp(r1_w)
        r1_p =  r2_v
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_press(g_i_) = r1_p * g_r1_w(g_i_)
        enddo
        press = r2_v
C--------
        r2_v = trmass * wtmol
        r6_v = rgas * tempa
        r7_v = r2_v * press / r6_v
        r2_b = 1.0 / r6_v
        r4_b = -r7_v / r6_v * rgas
        r6_b = r2_b * r2_v
        r7_b = r2_b * press * wtmol
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
     g_ea(g_i_) = r7_b * g_trmass(g_i_) + r6_b * g_press(g_i_)
     + r4 *_b * g_tempa(g_i_)
        enddo
        ea = r7_v
C--------
C
C Compute factor z and slope of vapor pressure curve s [Pa/K]:
C
        r2_v = ugrd * rgas
        r6_v = r2_v * tempa / trmass
        r3_b = 1.0 / vapht
        r4_b = r3_b * (1.0 / trmass)
        r5_b = r3_b * (-r6_v / trmass)
        r7_b = r4_b * r2_v
        r8_b = r4_b * tempa * rgas
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
     g_z(g_i_) = r8_b * g_ugrd(g_i_) + r7_b * g_tempa(g_i_)
     + r5_b ** g_trmass(g_i_)
        enddo
        z = (3650120. * schmdt ** 0.67 + r6_v) / vapht
C--------
        r6_v = (tempa - real(273) + c) * (tempa - real(273) + c)
        r1_p = 2.0e0 * (tempa - real(273) + c)
        r7_v = press * b / r6_v
        r6_b = -r7_v / r6_v * r1_p
        r7_b = 1.0 / r6_v * b
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_s(g_i_) = r7_b * g_press(g_i_) + r6_b * g_tempa(g_i_)
        enddo
        s = r7_v
C--------
C
C Finally compute evaporation rate [g/m2s]:
C
        r3_v = s + z
        r4_v = s / r3_v
        r3_b = -r4_v / r3_v
        r2_b = 1.0 / r3_v + r3_b
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
          g_beta(g_i_) = r2_b * g_s(g_i_) + r3_b * g_z(g_i_)
        enddo
        beta = r4_v
C--------
        r5_v = 1. - beta
        r6_b = -ea + er
        do g_i_ = 1, g_p_
    g_evap(g_i_) = beta * g_er(g_i_) + r6_b * g_beta(g_i_)
    + r5_v ** g_ea(g_i_)
        enddo
        evap = er * beta + ea * r5_v
C--------
        return
      end

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