Simulation models: risk assessment, industrial accidents

EMIS maintains a range of dynamic simulation models that can be used both for automatic, scheduled forecasting and now-casting runs (modeling cum monitoring, data assimilation) but also interactively for scenario analysis, planning, and environmental impact assessment.

Risk assessment

EMIS includes selected components from the RiskWare system and its functions.

For accidental release of hazardous substances, atmospheric or aquatic dispersion, fire, BLEVE, or explosion, a range of technological risk assessment models is available. The main model is the rapid assessment tool Metodo Speditivo that provides a rapid screening level estimate of different danger zones around sources of risk (the container and storage units) depending on material characteristics, amounts, and meteorological conditions for some (dispersion) scenarios.
Other optional models can be used for the full range of possible accidents and their impacts, both for probabilistic risk assessment and for scenario analysis including 3D dynamic CFD code for heavy gas dispersion and near field high resolution modeling including explicit building obstacles.

The meteorological scenario is derived from the regional forecast with diagnostic interpolation methods.

The source term (linked to the container and storage data base) is computed according to the TNO Yellow Book methods and formula for different types of release scenarios from jet release to pool evaporation, which is then processed by a range of atmospheric simulation models. For flammable and explosive substances (physico-chemical properties are obtained from the hazardous substances (MSDS) data base), alternative models includes fires, BLEVE and explosion.

• Risk model: Metodo Speditivo