Release R5.4, PREVIEW

Release R5.4 is a scheduled major update release within the framework of the extended continuing support and maintenance contracts. The Release is currently under development with data from the Republic of Cyprus Installation
on the ESS Development Server

Main new features planned and under development:

1. Stochastic version of PBM: the model will be run in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same and next day forecast to determine the 95% percentile of expected ozone maxima in each domain.

   Requires the regular availability of meteorological forecasts for 24/48 hours at selected stations for the PBM model domains. Use of realitsic initial and boundary conditions requires either

   • real-time ozone monitoring data around or upwind of the PBM model domains;
   • dynamic boundary conditions from an external regional ozone forecast model.
   Please note that the number of possible Monte Carlo runs will be performance bound.

2. Coupling with a user defined alert mechanism (eMail, SMS, fax).

3. Optional coupling of PBM dynamic bounday conditions to an external regional ozone model or data base to re-use the monitoring data from the current/last day as tomorrow's boundary conditions.

4. Interactive editor for VOC speciation coefficients (replacing the PBM default settings).

5. Emission data base: extended statistical analysis functions, outlier detection, regression between substances, fuel consumption, scatterplots etc.

6. Emission data summary: dynamic generation and export of emission matrices on a user define (EMEP) grid.

7. Emission data: extension by techno-economic data (technologies, policies, strategies, regulations, incentives from a techno-economic data base) for optional emission control optimization.
   Please note:   a multi-criteria, non-linear optimization component for emission control optimization with emission, monetary, air quality compliance, and exposure/impact criteria is planned for Release 6.0, utilizing parallel developments of the EUREKA project E!3266 WEBAIR.

8. AERMOD: optional coupling to extended meteorological data derived consistently from any external 3D prognostic meteorological model to replace AERMET default settings (dynamic mixing height, cloud cover, radiation).

9. Source apportioning: for AERMOD, separate results matrices for point sources, area sources and traffic (generated with the high-resolution convolution model) are generated shown together with their relative contributions to the overall pollution concentrations.

10. Data management:
    • Storage and analysis of hourly model results for all user defined building (receptor) points and air quality monitoring stations for compliance analysis, model validation.
      Please note that this is based on the availability of an updated and reliable emissison inventory and realistic real-time meteo data.

    • Storage and analysis of monitoring data (from a remote data base) for comparison with the model results, dynamic computations of residuals/error terms.

    • Matrix/model scenario comparison: generic data (matrix format of emission matrices and models results) comparison (for arbitrary pairs from the same domain and resolution), computes and displays deltas between commensurate matrices, including statistical analysis.

11. Dynamic data assimilation: for all Nowcast model results, using a distance weighted correction function to minimize the error terms of monitoring data and corresponding model results (averaged over user define spatio-temporal neighborhoods).
    Please note: this feature is subject to the availability (access to) real-time air quality monitoring data.

12. Extension of the forecast time horizon to 48 (2*24) hours, optional automatic 24 hourly forecast runs with AERMOD (require meteorological forecasts at the station level).