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The project calls for the evaluation by dispersion modeling of a capcity
expansion of 144 MW of the current 305 MW Delimara Thermal Power Station on Malta in terms of the
resulting increase in ambient level of air pollution, increase over the baseline,
and compliance with the air quality standards defined by the Air Quality Framework Directive
(2008/50/EC), and (2004/107/EC).
The AirWare model system is used.
The substances to simulate include NO2, PM10 and PM2.5, metals (cadmium, aresenic, nickel)
Benzo-a-Pyrene (BaP). The relevant (EU) substance specific standards
are used, see: Table of Air Quality Target and Limit values.
The simulation uses a range of air quality models with nested grid, starting from a European scale
and EMEP emisison data to account for long-range transport.
The simulation runs a re based on a three year period of meteorological data to eleminate bias from
specific meteorological situations as much as possble. For the years, 2008, 2009, and 2010
detailed meteorological fields (interpolated down to 1 km hourly values) are used.
They are generated with MM5, a 3D non-hydrostatic prognostic model system.
The basic assessment approach is straight forward:
- Baseline runs for the historical period of available data
including specific sampling periods and programs; they are used for model calibration
where necessary and model validation; this includes measured emission from
the Delimara plant with an hourly resolution and the matching hourly air quality data.
The scenarios dynamic regional background (starting at the European EMEP level).
- Scenarios analysis for the extension (additional emission corresponding
to the 144 MW additional generting capacity, different fuel qualities),
runs of several models with predicted emissions
(in part extrapolated from the sampling and monitoring program,
in particular for traffic generated emissions) with up to three years of historical data.
Primary assessment model is the USEPA regulatory (Gaussian) guideline model AERMOD
(current release: R0929) run with AERMAP terrain data and AERMET meteorology input
files generated (mcip) from MM5 re-analysis, hourly runs over a year at a time.
Episodes that indicate potential violations of standard, or the episode with the predicted maxima of
concentration are then re-run with different models such as CAMx (with the TPS represented as PIG),
short-term AERMOD (output of individual hourly concentration matrices),
AERMOD/OLM (for direct calculation of NO2 estimates), TRAFFIC (for line sources including a mixing zone),
and PUFF to realistically represent low wind
(or no wind) situations the basic Gaussian AERMOD model can not represent.
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